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WRAP Regional Modeling Center

Section 308 Results   -   Supported by: Western Regional Air Partnership

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Visibility Modeling

WRAP Regional Haze Air Quality and Visibility Modeling Results



Air quality and visibility modeling results are organized into 3 tables below. Table 1 includes CMAQ results for the 2002 model performance evaluation (MPE) case and results for the 2002 Planning Case and the 2018 Base Case. Table 2 includes results for the CAMx MPE case and the PSAT source apportionment simulations. Table 3 includes other model sensitivity studies. Older model results (e.g., preliminary evaluation and test cases) are listed below in the archive section.



Click on the case name to open the run specification sheet for each model scenario.



Table 1. Recent CMAQ Visibility Modeling Results.
Simulation Name (Spec Sheet) Emission Inputs AQ/Visibility Results
CMAQ 2002 36km base B MPE Case (Base02b) Base02b Emissions
2002 36km Plan B (Plan02b) Plan02b Emissions
2018 36km Base B (Base18b) Base18b Emissions
2002 36km Planning C (Plan02c) Plan02c Emissions
CMAQ 12km MPE and Comparison to 36km 2002 Base A  
2018 36km Base C (Base18c) summer seasons Base18c Emissions
2018 36km PRP18a (PRP18a) PRP18a Emissions
2002 36km Planning D (Plan02d) Plan02d Emissions
2018 36km PRP18b (PRP18b) PRP18b Emissions
2018 36km PRP18cmv (PRP18cmv) PRP18cmv Emissions





Table 2. CAMx Visibility Modeling and Source Apportionment Results.
Simulation Name (Spec Sheet) Emission Inputs AQ/Visibility Results
CAMx 2002 36km Base A MPE  
CAMx 2002 Plan C PSAT (PSAT_plan02c)  
CAMx 2018 Base B PSAT (PSAT_base18b)  





Table 3. CMAQ Visibility Modeling Sensitivity Studies.
Simulation Name Emission Inputs AQ/Visibility Results
Zero Windblown Dust Sensitivity (Base02b_NoWBD) WBD Emissions QA comparison of Base02b to Zero wind blown sensitivity case
2002 Natural Emissions Case (base02nt) Natural Emissions QA 2002 Natural Emissions Case




Archive of Older Air Quality Modeling Results




CAMx 2018 Base B PSAT Results


CAMx PM Source Apportionment (PSAT) results show effects in 2018 of each emissions source-area group either as spatial impacts or as barplot contributions at individual receptor sites.

Monthly Average Spatial Plots showing downwind impacts of each emissions source-area group

Best/Worst 20% Days Average Data

Monthly Average MPE Results (tarred CSV file)

Daily Average MPE Results (tarred CSV file)

Barplots for 2018 showing emissions source-area group contributions at each Class I receptor site on Average 20% Worst/Best Beta-Extinction

Barplots showing emissions source-area group contributions at each Class 1 receptor site (monthly average results)



CAMx 2002 Plan C PSAT Results



Monthly Average Spatial Plots showing downwind impacts of each emissions source-area group:

Best/Worst 20% Days Average Data

Monthly Average MPE Results (tarred CSV file)

Daily Average MPE Results (tarred CSV file)

Barplots for 2002 showing emissions source-area group contributions at each Class I receptor site on Average 20% Worst/Best Beta-Extinction

Barplots for 2002 showing emissions source-area group contributions at each Class I receptor site (monthly average results)



2018 base C vs. 2018 base B (base18c vs. base18b)



Daily Average Spatial Difference Plots

 

Monthly Average Spatial Difference Plots



2002 Planning C vs. 2002 Base B (Plan02c vs. Base02b)

Model outputs yearly average difference gifs:

Model outputs monthly average difference gifs (sorted by species; a pop-up window will show up).


2002 Planning C vs. 2002 Planning B (Plan02c vs. Plan02b)



Daily Average Spatial Difference Plots

 

Monthly Average Spatial Difference Plots


2018 PRP CMV vs. 2018 PRP B (prp18cmv vs. prp18b)

Model outputs yearly average difference gifs (36km results zooming in WRAP region):

Model outputs monthly average difference gifs (sorted by species; a pop-up window will show up).

 

2018 PRP B vs. 2002 Plan D (prp18b vs. Plan02d)

Model outputs yearly average difference gifs (36km results zooming in WRAP region):

Model outputs monthly average difference gifs (sorted by species; a pop-up window will show up).

 

2018 PRP B vs. 2018 PRP A (prp18b vs. prp18a)

Model outputs yearly average difference gifs (36km results zooming in WRAP region):

Model outputs monthly average difference gifs (sorted by species; a pop-up window will show up).

 

2018 PRP A vs. 2002 Plan D (prp18a vs. Plan02d)

Model outputs yearly average difference gifs (36km results zooming in WRAP region):

Model outputs monthly average difference gifs (sorted by species; a pop-up window will show up).

Annual daily changes in aerosol contributions to extinction (pdf file, ~37MB in size) at IMPROVE sites in WRAP region.

 

2018 Plan D vs. 2002 Plan C (Plan02d vs. Plan02c)

Model outputs yearly average difference gifs (36km results zooming in WRAP region):

Model outputs monthly average difference gifs (sorted by species; a pop-up window will show up).

 

2018 PRP A vs. 2018 Base B (prp18a vs. base18b)

Model outputs yearly average difference gifs (36km results zooming in WRAP region):

Model outputs monthly average difference gifs (sorted by species; a pop-up window will show up).

 

2018 PRP A vs. 2002 Plan C (prp18a vs. Plan02c)

Model outputs yearly average difference gifs (36km results zooming in WRAP region):

Model outputs monthly average difference gifs (sorted by species; a pop-up window will show up).

Annual daily changes in aerosol contributions to extinction at IMPROVE sites in WRAP region.

2018 Base B

Model outputs yearly average gifs (36km results zooming in WRAP region):

Model outputs monthly average gifs (opening up another window; 36km results zooming in WRAP region; results sorted by species).

 

2018 Base B vs. 2002 Plan C (Base18b vs. Plan02c)

Model outputs yearly average difference gifs (36km results zooming in WRAP region):

Model outputs monthly average difference gifs (sorted by species; a pop-up window will show up).

 

2018 Base B vs. 2002 Planning B (base18b vs. Plan02b)

 

Monthly model to model comparison (scatter and time series plots for IMPROVE sites in WRAP region).

Daily Average Spatial Difference Plots (focusing on WRAP region only)

Monthly Average Spatial Difference Plots (focusing on WRAP region only)

 

 

2002 Planning B vs. Planning A (Plan02b vs. Plan02a)

Monthly Average Spatial Difference Plots Daily spatial difference plots





2002 CMAQ v4.5 base B vs. base B no wind blown dust (Base02b vs. Base02b_NoWBD)

Monthly Average Spatial Difference Plots Daily spatial difference plots: (36km results in WRAP region) IMPROVE Monthly Model Performance Evaluation (scatter and time series plots).





2002 CMAQ v4.5 base B and comparison with base A (base02b vs. base02a)

 

Base02b results: Annual daily stacked bar plots, Bugle plots, Fractional Bias/Error, Unpaired in time/space analysis, Ambient overlay plots, Annual average spatial plots

 

 

 

 

 

 

Base02b vs. Base02a results:

    Monthly Average Spatial Difference Plots

    Seasonal Average Spatial Difference Plots     Yearly Average Spatial Difference Plots

 

 

2002 CMAQ Natural Emissions Case

This simulation included only those emissions that could be identified as natural or biogenic, and a natural emissions GEOS-CHEM simulations was used to provide the bounadry conditions. Because it is difficult to identify all natural emissions, this model scenario does not represent true natural visibility, rather it represent the model "floor" when all anthropgenic emissions are removed. Moreover, visibility results presented in the spatial plots are the model reconstructed beta extinction and deciviews using modeled relative humidity. These differ from visibility that would be calculated at IMPROVE sites using default average relative humidity.

OC component analysis:

    Base02b vs. Natural Emissions: (annual and monthly spatial difference plots; all plots in a zip file can be downloaded here)

2018 vs. 2002 planning cases (base18a vs. plan02a)





2002 Base Case A 36k CAMx versus CMAQ4.5YAMO





12k versus 36k CMAQ 2002 Base Case A

CMAQ 12km versus 36km MPE comparsions using 2002 Base Case A CMAQ4.5YAMO (Yamartino advection scheme)





2002 Base Case A 36k CMAQv4.5YAMO versus CMAQv4.4final

Base02a CMAQ4.5 YAMO results





2002 Base Case A (Base02a)

Base02a results

Base02a vs. Base02a with high soil NH3 - January and July sensitivity runs

Base02a with CMAQ v4.4 final vs. CMAQ v4.5 - July comparison





CAMx versus CMAQ 4.4 Preliminary Version D Comparison

2002 Preliminary Version D (Pre02d)

Observed results vs. 12km model annual results:

12km model results vs. 36km model results:

Daily 36km model outputs with IMPROVE ambient overlay plots for major aerosol species:

Daily 12km model outputs with IMPROVE ambient overlay plots for major aerosol species:

Daily No Soil NH3 12km model outputs with IMPROVE ambient overlay plots for major aerosol species:

Comparisons between interim emission inventory version D versus version C (Pre02d vs. Pre02c):





2002 Fugitive Dust Comparison

Comparions between REVISED fugitive dust and preliminary version B in 2002 Annual CMAQ modeling.

Comparions between fugitive dust and preliminary version B in 2002 Annual CMAQ modeling.





Small Fire BaseA 2002 Sensitivity Scenerios (12k CMAQ results)

In these simulation we removed all small fires (of less than 100 acres woodland and less than 300 acres grassland) to determine whether small fires have significant visibility impacts. The small fire removed case is compared CMAQ 36km BaseA 2002 (Base case minus sensitivity case) to show the effect of small fires.

SMOKE emissions:

Monthly Total Spatial Difference Plots of July and November sensitivity to small fires

CMAQ model:

Monthly Average Spatial Difference Plots of July and November sensitivity to small fires

Hourly PAVE animations showing July and November sensitivity to small fires: Daily average spatial difference plots (base_w_allfires vs. base_wo_smallfires): Hourly animations of the change in fire emissions in western Montana (Nov 11-17): Animations zooming in on western Montana fires affecting the Flathead IMPROVE site (Nov 11-17): Download the Draft PPT file for March 7 FEJF Meeting





Preliminary 2002 Fire Sensitivity Scenerios

Monthly Average Spatial Difference Plots to examine source attribution by natural versus anthropgenic fire emissions:

Daily difference stacked bar plots for major extinction contribution species:

Monthly Average Spatial Difference Plots for the 3 fire categories individually compared to no fire emissions (posted 11/5/04)





CMAQ v44beta vs. v44 final release (released in Oct. 2004)

Based on vistas' January 2002 modeling comparisons: (posted 11/5/04)





2002 Preliminary Version C

2002 Annual CMAQ modeling using interim emission inventory version C.





2002 Preliminary Version C vs. Preliminary Version B





Comparison of CMAQ Version 4.3 vs. CMAQ version 4.4





2002 Preliminary Version B

Inital testing of CMAQ has been completed using the 2002 Interim Emissions Inventory for Winter (Jan-Feb-Dec) and Summer (Jun-July-Aug) 2002. CMAQ Model Performance evaluation plots and performance metrics are included for all monitoring sites in the WRAP states and all sites in the continental US, for the base case.





2002 Clean Boundary Condition Sensitivity Case Version B (created January 2004)

Results for a summer & winter sensitivity case with clean boundary condition are summarized here:

Detailed plots are are available here:





CMAQ Source Attribution Results

CMAQ model simulations were performed using the Tagged Species Source Attribution (TSSA) algorithm to assess source contributions to PM at receptor sites. These results are summarized below as average source contributions on the 20% best and 20% worst days. Best and worst days were determined either using the model predictions and also using ambient data for the IMPROVE sites. Barplots for several groups of receptors sites are listed below:

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